Mexico: Clear Skies, Calm Seas. A Hopeful Start to the 2025/2026 Whale Season

As we settle into the first month of 2026, the news from the Mexican lagoons and migratory corridors is exceptionally encouraging. For those of us tracking the environmental factors that impact our Gray whale population, this year has brought a much-needed period of stability. So far, the run down the USA coast has been clear of any significant meteor events. 

The 2024/2025 Season: A Year of Crisis. Last year was one of the most critical on record for the Eastern North Pacific population. Key data points included: Airburst Events: There were 4 significant airburst events marked in the Mexico/Baja region. This period of high atmospheric activity coincided with a record spike in navigational anomalies. Strandings: A staggering 92 strandings were reported in Baja California Sur alone—a major jump from previous years. Record Low Births: Only 85 calves were counted during the spring 2025 northward migration, the lowest since monitoring began in 1994.

The 2025/2026 Season: The "Quiet" Turnaround. As of January 27, 2026, the comparison is stark. This absence of high-energy atmospheric events is a key factor in the improved conditions we are seeing: Airburst Count: Currently stands at 0. Atmospheric Stability: Unlike the previous cycle, there have been no recorded meteor airbursts or significant disturbances in the region. Early Success: San Diego sightings have already surpassed last year's early counts, with 7 healthy newborn babies spotted passing through those waters in early January—compared to just one at the same time last year.

A Promising Beginning. In the lagoons of Baja California Sur, early observers are reporting calm conditions and plenty of whales. San Ignacio Lagoon is "full of life," with mothers already nursing calves inside the protected waters. This suggests the whales are navigating with significantly less interference, arriving in better body condition and on a more traditional schedule.

Hopefully, the graph below stays the same for the next couple of months. 

Note: Meteor activity is Northern Hemisphere compared to Southern Hemisphere means wet and cold, and dry and hot.