Mexico: Clear Skies, Calm Seas. A Hopeful Start to the 2025/2026 Whale Season

As we settle into the first month of 2026, the news from the Mexican lagoons and migratory corridors is exceptionally encouraging. For those of us tracking the environmental factors that impact our Gray whale population, this year has brought a much-needed period of stability. So far, the run down the USA coast has been clear of any significant meteor events. 

The 2024/2025 Season: A Year of Crisis. Last year was one of the most critical on record for the Eastern North Pacific population. Key data points included: Airburst Events: There were 4 significant airburst events marked in the Mexico/Baja region. This period of high atmospheric activity coincided with a record spike in navigational anomalies. Strandings: A staggering 92 strandings were reported in Baja California Sur alone—a major jump from previous years. Record Low Births: Only 85 calves were counted during the spring 2025 northward migration, the lowest since monitoring began in 1994.

The 2025/2026 Season: The "Quiet" Turnaround. As of January 27, 2026, the comparison is stark. This absence of high-energy atmospheric events is a key factor in the improved conditions we are seeing: Airburst Count: Currently stands at 0. Atmospheric Stability: Unlike the previous cycle, there have been no recorded meteor airbursts or significant disturbances in the region. Early Success: San Diego sightings have already surpassed last year's early counts, with 7 healthy newborn babies spotted passing through those waters in early January—compared to just one at the same time last year.

A Promising Beginning. In the lagoons of Baja California Sur, early observers are reporting calm conditions and plenty of whales. San Ignacio Lagoon is "full of life," with mothers already nursing calves inside the protected waters. This suggests the whales are navigating with significantly less interference, arriving in better body condition and on a more traditional schedule.

Hopefully, the graph below stays the same for the next couple of months. 

Note: Meteor activity is Northern Hemisphere compared to Southern Hemisphere means wet and cold, and dry and hot.

San Fransico Bay Cetacean deaths

Date: 2025, May 7. USA, California, San Francisco Bay, Treasure Island. Dead female Gray whale. The 38-foot-long whale showed no obvious signs of trauma or injury and had been feeding recently.

This recent death brings the 2025 total whale deaths to six, with over 30 seen in the bay this year alone. Only one fatality showed signs of a ship strike. In 2024, only 4 Gray whales were seen, with two deaths recorded.

An unconfirmed report from Mexico says: "In Baja California Sur, at least 94 gray whales have been found dead so far in 2025." I think this number includes other baleen species. I'm working on obtaining official figures. 

Once again, for those not familiar with my other posts, two large meteor airbursts were detected by NASA over the last six months in Mexico's Pacific region. See map below. Combined, they had the energy of 5.8 kt or 5,800,000 kg/TNT.

Alarming toll from Meteor Airbursts

These incidents are not isolated. According to NOAA, the U.S. has seen a troubling rise in whale strandings and deaths in early 2025:

Over 81 gray whales have been found dead along the Pacific Coast since January.

13 deaths have occurred in San Francisco Bay alone.

At least 70 gray whales died earlier this year in the lagoons of Baja California, Mexico—their traditional wintering ground.

Two Large Meteor Airbursts.

2024, December 20. Pacific Ocean. Airburst. 204 km S.W off the coast of Puerto Escondido, Mexico. Energy: 3,400,000 kg.TNT. Altitude: 32.6 km. Velocity: 21.1 km/sec.

2025, March 27. Pacific Ocean, 920km WSW of Manzanillo, Colima, Mexico. Large Airburst. Energy: 2,400,000 kg/TNT.

Gray whale stranding in Mexico

2025, April 5. Mexico, Costa Baja, La Paz Bay. A dead Gray whale in an advanced state of decomposition has washed ashore. 

This is a crucial issue in Mexico, hence the post. I will place a weekly update on further cetacean strandings later.