Mexico: Clear Skies, Calm Seas. A Hopeful Start to the 2025/2026 Whale Season

As we settle into the first month of 2026, the news from the Mexican lagoons and migratory corridors is exceptionally encouraging. For those of us tracking the environmental factors that impact our Gray whale population, this year has brought a much-needed period of stability. So far, the run down the USA coast has been clear of any significant meteor events. 

The 2024/2025 Season: A Year of Crisis. Last year was one of the most critical on record for the Eastern North Pacific population. Key data points included: Airburst Events: There were 4 significant airburst events marked in the Mexico/Baja region. This period of high atmospheric activity coincided with a record spike in navigational anomalies. Strandings: A staggering 92 strandings were reported in Baja California Sur alone—a major jump from previous years. Record Low Births: Only 85 calves were counted during the spring 2025 northward migration, the lowest since monitoring began in 1994.

The 2025/2026 Season: The "Quiet" Turnaround. As of January 27, 2026, the comparison is stark. This absence of high-energy atmospheric events is a key factor in the improved conditions we are seeing: Airburst Count: Currently stands at 0. Atmospheric Stability: Unlike the previous cycle, there have been no recorded meteor airbursts or significant disturbances in the region. Early Success: San Diego sightings have already surpassed last year's early counts, with 7 healthy newborn babies spotted passing through those waters in early January—compared to just one at the same time last year.

A Promising Beginning. In the lagoons of Baja California Sur, early observers are reporting calm conditions and plenty of whales. San Ignacio Lagoon is "full of life," with mothers already nursing calves inside the protected waters. This suggests the whales are navigating with significantly less interference, arriving in better body condition and on a more traditional schedule.

Hopefully, the graph below stays the same for the next couple of months. 

Note: Meteor activity is Northern Hemisphere compared to Southern Hemisphere means wet and cold, and dry and hot.

Good news for Gray whales in the North Pacific

"Unusual Mortality Event" declared over. 700 gray whales deaths were recorded off the coast from Mexico to Canada between 2019 and 2023. In a worrisome few years for the North Pacific gray whale population, hundreds washed up dead on shorelines along the West Coast leading to an estimated 30% decline in their population. During the years of the Unusual Mortality Event, 347 Gray whales were stranded along the coasts of California, Oregon and Washington; another 316 were reported in Mexico and 27 in Canada. The population numbers of the North Pacific Gray whale had declined during the Unusual Mortality Event, going from an estimated 20,500 whales in 2019 to 14,526 whales in 2023. Updated population numbers are expected to come out soon. Total calf production also declined, from around 950 calves counted in 2018 to an estimated 217 calves in 2022. In 2023, calf production increased slightly to 412 counted. Between 2018 to 2023 690 gray whales washed ashore from 2018 to 2023: 347 in the United States, 316 in Mexico and 27 in Canada.  Below is a map of the North Pacific Meteor Airbursts from 2018 to 2022. One of these had the equivalent energy of 49 million kilograms of TNT. They ranged from the Arctic Circle to California.